The Leaky College Pipeline: Evidence from Administrative Data in Uganda
A new paper in AEA Papers and Proceedings examines how educational opportunities narrow at each stage of the schooling system in Uganda, long before students reach university.
In “The Leaky College Pipeline: Evidence from Administrative Data in Uganda”, Isaac Ahimbisibwe, Adrien Dautheville, Lenka Fiala, Saint Kizito Omala, and Wayne Aaron Sandholtz use linked administrative data to follow students from primary school through university scholarship applications in Uganda. Their analysis reveals substantial attrition throughout the education system, with many high-performing students from disadvantaged backgrounds leaving the pipeline before reaching higher education.
The authors show that merit-based university scholarships are heavily concentrated among students from a small number of secondary schools, many of which serve wealthier regions. As a result, talented students from poorer districts are often excluded from higher education opportunities long before financial aid decisions are made.
The findings suggest that access to higher education is shaped by a cumulative process of educational progression rather than a single transition point. The study highlights the importance of strengthening access and quality throughout primary and secondary education if policymakers wish to broaden university participation and improve social mobility.