It is hardly realistic to expect nuclear power to contribute in Norway before around 2045.
Linda Nøstbakken
Nuclear Power Committee: Not profitable in Norway
The committee does not recommend starting a process for nuclear power development in Norway at this stage.
The Nuclear Power Committee today submits its report to Minister of Energy Terje Aasland.
The committee’s 12 members have examined nuclear power as a possible source of electricity in Norway.
A clear picture
`Our analyses point to a clear overall conclusion. Given current costs and the electricity prices we can realistically expect in the years ahead, investing in nuclear power in Norway is not profitable at present,´ says Linda Nøstbakken.
She is a member of the Nuclear Power Committee. Nøstbakken is Director of Research at Statistics Norway and a professor at the Department of Economics at NHH.
The report provides an overall assessment of the social benefits and drawbacks of nuclear power in Norway, also compared with other possible paths for the power system. This includes assessments of electricity and technology, as well as wider effects such as employment, industrial development, new value chains, ethical questions and public acceptance.
Too late
The committee has carried out extensive business-economic and socio-economic analyses. Its conclusion is clear:
Nuclear Power Committee
- A public committee appointed by the government in June 2024.
- It has examined whether nuclear power could become a relevant source of electricity in Norway.
- It has considered economics, timing, technology, safety, waste and regulation.
- Chaired by Kristin Halvorsen and consists of 12 members.
For nuclear power to become profitable, either electricity prices would have to rise substantially or investment costs would have to fall dramatically.
Even under optimistic assumptions, however, the committee believes nuclear power would arrive too late to solve the electricity needs Norway will face over the coming decades.
Lack of expertise
`It is hardly realistic to expect nuclear power to contribute in Norway before around 2045,´ says Nøstbakken.
`That also means nuclear power will arrive too late to make any significant contribution to Norway meeting its climate targets by 2050.´
Nuclear power in Norway
- Norway has no nuclear power plants in operation.
- Nuclear power was last examined by a public committee in NOU 1978:35.
- In 1986, the Norwegian Parliament concluded that nuclear power was not a relevant energy source for Norway.
- The debate has resurfaced in recent years, partly because of rising electricity demand, technological developments and local initiatives.
The committee notes in its report that Norway, which is not currently a nuclear power country, has no comparative advantages in nuclear power production. It also lacks important expertise.
Even so, the committee is positive about nuclear power as a possible energy source for Norway.
It recommends that Norway establish a nuclear competence project so that it may become easier and quicker to develop nuclear power in Norway at a later stage, should that be considered relevant.
Subsidies?
`The question of subsidies therefore becomes relevant. Can the state support a technology that is unprofitable from a business perspective if it is believed to create additional value? Several countries have done so. But in Norway, the arguments are weak.´
`The question of subsidies therefore becomes relevant.
Linda Nøstbakken
According to the committee, such additional benefits are largely absent in a hydropower-based system with reservoirs and high flexibility. The committee also finds no evidence of significant market failure or other conditions that would justify targeted support for nuclear power.
`This is a profitability problem, not a market-failure problem. The fact that something is not profitable without subsidies does not in itself mean that market failure is present.´
Follow the press conference and seminar
Seminar
After the press conference, a seminar will be held in which the committee will present its work in greater detail.
Among other things, it will discuss the global technological status of nuclear power, how safe the technology is, and what expertise is required.
It will also elaborate on its assessments of socio-economic profitability, future electricity demand, the need for different system characteristics, and how much risk society should be willing to take.
In addition, the seminar will address regulation and government clarification for new nuclear countries, international experience, safety and non-proliferation, ethical considerations, and public support.
Two NHH researchers appointed to new Commission
Isabel M. Hovdahl and Linda Nøstbakken have been appointed members of the much-discussed "Transition Commission".