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Fan, Hanwen, Haiying Jia, Xiaoxing Gong, Zheng Chang, and Jing Lyu: A Novel Framework for Quantitative Evaluation of Resilience Performance of Sea Lanes of Communication, Risk Analysis, 2026, 46(6), Online 08.06.2026.

Abstract

Sea lanes of communication (SLOC) are perceived as intricate systems comprising shipping routes, key straits, and canals, which are increasingly vulnerable to external disruptions. This study proposes a holistic framework for resilience assessment on the system by introducing an advanced framework incorporating fuzzy logic, a critic weight calculation approach, and the evidential reasoning (ER) algorithm to assess resilience.

Second, a hierarchical influential index is created, assessing the system's capacity to absorb, adjust, and recover from disruptions while incorporating connectivity among key straits and canals to illustrate the risk performance and spatial relationships of the straits and canals within Sea Lanes of Communication.

Third, a fuzzy ER algorithm integrates information from diverse sources, taking into account the significance and nonlinear relationships among the influential factors. Finally, we present techniques to assess the resilience performance and validate our models. This proposed framework is implemented through an empirical study of five primary Sea Lanes of Communications that connect the Far East and the rest of the world. This framework provides valuable insights into resilience performance in an environment with high uncertainties and offers guidance for relevant stakeholders.

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