Journal of the Operational Research Society is on level 3 in the ABS Academic Journal Guide.

Xu, Aocheng, Stein W. Wallace, and Qingyi Wang: An evacuation planning model considering stochastic non-compliance behaviour and shelter-in-place strategy, Journal of the Operational Research Society, Online 24.10.2025.

Abstract

This study addresses a two-stage evacuation planning problem that explicitly considers stochastic non-compliance behaviour of evacuees and the shelter-in-place (SIP) strategy. In the first stage before disasters, SIP sites of different types are deployed at some demand points, and each demand point is assigned to a faraway shelter. In the second stage after disasters, evacuees of each demand point are guided either to a deployed SIP site nearby or to the faraway shelter, which is assigned before disasters.

The evacuation outcomes at SIP sites and shelters are evaluated based on the first-stage decisions, the post-disaster evacuation guidance, and the realised uncertain transportation time and non-compliance behaviour of evacuees. Four comparison models, one gives SIP guidance before disasters, one ignores SIP, one deploys SIP sites extensively, and one ignores stochastic non-compliance, which are based on existing studies, are investigated to highlight the benefits of our proposed model.

With a real-world case study, we show the effectiveness of our proposed model and obtain managerial insights. This study highlights the importance of reducing the negative impacts of stochastic non-compliance and underscores the benefit of integrating the SIP strategy with traditional evacuation methods to improve evacuation outcomes.

• Share on Facebook
• Share on Twitter
• Share on LinkedIn
• Share by e-mail