Prize-Winning Master’s Thesis Sheds New Light on Offshore Wind Strategy
The work of NHH students Julius Ahrens and Luis Bendel reveals a striking finding.
Julius Georg Ahrens and Luis Bendel had given up hope that their master’s thesis on wind power would attract any attention.
They felt that their work could have real impact and be of interest to decision-makers in both the public and private sectors. But the attention wasn’t there yet. Then came a phone call from the Department of Business and Management Science: The award for the best master’s thesis of the year was theirs.
«It came a bit out of the blue. We didn’t even know we were nominated. A very nice surprise, of course,» says Julius Ahrens.
The award committee, led by Professor Øystein Foros, highlighted the German students’ «exceptional skills in data analysis and modeling,» concluding: «These findings carry clear managerial implications for strategic spatial planning in pursuit of Norway’s offshore wind ambitions.»
«The award confirms our own feeling: that the thesis actually provides interesting perspectives for stakeholders, both in the industry and Norwegian governmental agencies,» says Luis Bendel.
Neutral in a heated debate
Norway is facing one of its largest energy transitions ever. The government plans large-scale offshore wind development, with a target of 30 gigawatts by 2040. A total of 20 areas have been identified as possible locations, but the plans are controversial. Conflicts involve fisheries and environmental interests, technological risk, and debates over who will benefit from the investments.
Bendel had specialised in business analytics , while Ahrens did the energy major. For them, offshore wind seemed like an ideal topic.
«It’s far more interesting and fun to work on something that actually has a purpose and a day-to-day relevance. We didn’t want to write a thesis that would end up in a drawer,» says Ahrens.
«The offshore wind debate is dominated by voices with strong opinions. We went into it completely neutrally,» Bendel adds.
Offshore wind power in Norway
- The government has set a goal of 30 GW of offshore wind by 2040.
- This corresponds to roughly the same amount of electricity as Norway’s current total production capacity.
- Twenty new potential offshore wind areas have been identified along the coast — from Skagerrak in the south to the Barents Sea in the north.
- This does not mean that all these areas will be developed.
- Utsira Nord is one of the areas being considered for floating offshore wind. This means that turbines are mounted on «buoys» rather than fixed to the seabed.
A surprising finding
Their goal was to develop a tool that identifies the most suitable locations for wind farms in Norwegian waters, grounded in data rather than politics.
In their work, they took three main steps:
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Analyzed a vast amount of wind data, based on extensive research by scholars from NHH and the University of Bergen.
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Building an advanced mathematical model, inspired by financial portfolio theory, assessing not only high production (return) but also low risk (areas with dissimilar wind patterns to ensure more stable total output).
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Running the model through various scenarios, taking into account the perspectives and interests of stakeholders such as fishermen, investors, environmental groups, and authorities.
The results were clear: A handful of areas consistently emerged as strong candidates for offshore wind development. But some areas were almost never selected in any scenario as a part of a portfolio of wind parks.
Interestingly, the sub-area Utsira Nord fell into the latter group. Utsira Nord, located off the coast of Haugesund, is one of the areas designated by the authorities for “early development.”
Considering the new findings: Does this mean that Utsira Nord might not be the right location after all?
«Our results have to be viewed through the lens of a portfolio,» Ahrens explains.
«What does that mean?»
«Based on our preliminary findings, there are other areas besides Utsira Nord that can deliver at least the same power output and meet the suitability requirements — but with lower risk,» Bendel says, adding:
«But of course, we acknowledge that power output, wind power suitability and diversification are not the only factors authorities have to consider when choosing wind farm locations.»
A unique model
The students further emphasize that the analysis has limitations, including the fact that they only had access to one year of weather data. Nevertheless:
«We believe that the model is that it is objective, transparent, and fully data-driven, while also considering conflicting interests. That’s why we believe the work can provide new and valuable insight,» they say.
The students’ supervisor was Julio C. Goez, Associate Professor at the Department of Business and Management Science at NHH. He was the one who nominated them.
«Students often look for a problem that fits their tools, whereas this group found the tools that fit the problem. This combination of analytical and technical skills made them stand out,» says Goez.