
Essays on Electricity Market Dynamics
On Wednesday 25 June 2025 Benjamin P. Fram will hold a trial lecture on a prescribed topic and defend his thesis for the PhD degree at NHH.
This doctoral thesis, titled "Essays on Electricity Market Dynamics," comprises four papers that present new insights on how demand, supply, and price formation in electricity markets react to changing market conditions. Factors driving these dynamics include seasonal fluctuations in electricity demand, new environmental regulations, transmission grid network topology, and market-clearing mechanisms used to manage network congestion.
The first paper, co-authored with Ritvana Rrukaj (NMBU) and Leif K. Sandal (NHH), utilizes techniques from the field of signal processing to model medium-term electricity demand. They first filter raw load data from the NYISO electricity market and then specify a novel time series model with Fourier terms to capture fluctuations in seasonal demand. This model yields high R-squared values and produces accurate forecasts of 90-day demand.
The second paper, co-authored with Stein-Erik Fleten (NTNU) and Carl Ullrich (James Madison University), studies the impact of stricter environmental regulations on coal plant retirements in the PJM wholesale electricity market. Using capacity market prices as an indicator for rising investment costs, they find that regulations introduced in 2012 and 2014 caused significant increases in capacity market prices and led older, smaller, and less efficient coal plants to retire from the PJM marketplace.
The third paper, co-authored with Devendra Canchi (Monitoring Analytics, LLC), develops a strategy for a storage resource (e.g., a utility-scale battery) that wishes to maximize revenues via energy trading in a wholesale electricity market. Using a rich dataset of real-time prices from the MISO wholesale power market, the researchers find that expected energy trading revenues are highest in areas of the transmission grid with a poorly meshed network leads to frequent network congestion.
The fourth and final paper, co-authored with Endre Bjørndal (NHH) and Mette Bjørndal (NHH), is a technical article that presents new hybrid pricing model variants for congestion management in electricity markets. We demonstrate that these hybrid models, which differ in how they model seams between market pricing areas, yield higher economic welfare than zonal models but vary amongst themselves under different grid conditions.
Prescribed topic for the trial lecture:
“Electricity Market Restructuring”
Trial lecture:
Jebsen Centre, NHH
Title of the thesis:
"Essays on Electricity Market Dynamics"
Defense:
Jebsen Centre, NHH
Members of the evaluation committee:
Professor II Anne Neumann (leader of the committee), Department of Business and Management Science, NHH
Professor Afzal Siddiqui, Stockholm University
Assistant Professor Jens Weibezahn, Copenhagen Business School
Supervisors:
Professor Mette H. Bjørndal (and late Endre Bjørndal) (main supervisor), Department of Business and Management Science, NHH
Associate Professor Floris Zoutman, Department of Business and Management Science, NHH
Professor Stein Erik Fleten, NTNU
The trial lecture and thesis defense will be open to the public.
