Business Cycle Analysis

FIE403 Business Cycle Analysis

Autumn 2018

Spring 2019
  • Topics

    This course considers economic theory, quantitative methods and empirical insights relevant for the analysis of business cycles domestically as well as internationally. A particular focus is directed to monetary policy and the interaction between business cycles and financial markets. A key feature of the course is the emphasis on present day-to-day developments in the global economy.

    • The decomposition of real GDP in trend and business cycles, impulse- and propagation mechanisms
    • Quantitative analysis of business cycles: Decomposition of cycles vs. trend (times series and filter techniques), seasonal adjustments, trend-forecasts
    • Business cycles versus financial cycles
    • Monetary policy and interest rate setting
    • Economic and financial indicators
    • Different macroeconomic "schools" and models of business cycles
    • The interaction between financial markets and macroeconomic developments
    • Aspects of productivity growth and measurement
    • Macroeconomic developments and the housing- and real estate markets
    • Oil prices, the petroleum sector and business cycles
    • Macroeconomic prospects domestically and globally

  • Learning outcome

    Knowledge

    - Students will obtain in-depth knowledge of the analysis of business cycles and the interaction between macroeconomic developments and financial markets.

    - The course introduces students to relevant theories, methods and empirical findings to understand business cycles in Norway and internationally.

    - The course has special emphasis on monetary policy and business cycle events and their effect on developments of interest rates and stock markets.

    Skills

    Upon completion of the course, students will have:

    - good understanding of business cycle concepts and chronology

    - the ability to conduct a quantitative analysis of business cycles, including the decomposition of time series into trend, cycle, seasonal components, as well as forecasts .

    - a good overview over central parts of theories of monetary policy and interest rate setting.

    - a good empirical knowledge of business cycle indicators and predictions about business cycles.

    - have an overview over macroeconomic schools of thought in business cycle theories.

    - the capacity to evaluate the current business cycle conditions and future developments.

    General competence

    The course has strong focus on current macroeconomic topics, and gives students the ability to analyze these developments..

  • Teaching

    Lectures, guest lectures and project work in groups.

  • Required prerequisites

    Basic knowledge about macroeconomics, finance and empirical methods from the bachelor program.

  • Requirements for course approval

    One written assignment and submission of business cycle predictions. Course approval valid for both Norwegian and English assement.

  • Assessment

    Four hour written school exam

  • Grading Scale

    Grading scale A - F

  • Computer tools

    Use of standard computer tools (excel etc.).

  • Literature

    The course literature will consist of selected articles, research reports and book chapters.

Overview

ECTS Credits
7.5
Teaching language
Autumn, English version of the course Spring, Norwegian version of the course
Semester

Autumn (English) and Spring (Fall): Offered Autumn 2018.

Course responsible

Autumn:  Professor Gernot Doppelhofer, Department of Economics

Spring:  Professor Jan Tore Klovland, Department of Economics