Business Cycle Analysis

FIE403 Business Cycle Analysis

Spring 2023

Autumn 2023
  • Topics

    In this course, you will learn how the economy is doing, how can you tell, and what are the likely policy actions. You will learn quantitative methods and empirical insights relevant to the analysis of business cycles. A particular focus is directed to monetary policy and the interaction between business cycles and financial markets. A key feature of the course is the emphasis on present day-to-day developments in the global economy.

    • The decomposition of real GDP in trend and business cycles, impulse- and propagation mechanisms
    • Quantitative analysis of business cycles: Decomposition of cycles vs. trend (times series and filter techniques), seasonal adjustments, trend-forecasts
    • Business cycles versus financial cycles
    • Monetary policy and interest rate-setting
    • Economic and financial indicators
    • The interaction between financial markets and macroeconomic developments
    • Business cycles and the labor market
    • Macroeconomic developments and the housing- and real estate markets
    • The response of labor markets during recessions
    • The micro-level origins of business cycles

  • Learning outcome


    • Students will obtain in-depth knowledge of the analysis of business cycles and the interaction between macroeconomic developments and financial markets.
    • Students will learn how monetary policy and business cycle events affect interest rates and stock markets.
    • Students will gain empirical knowledge of business cycle indicators .


    Upon completion of the course, students will:

    • be able to use business cycle concepts and chronology
    • be able to conduct a quantitative analysis of business cycles, including the decomposition of time series into trend, cycle, seasonal components, as well as forecasts.
    • have a good overview over central parts of theories of monetary policy and interest rate setting.
    • have the capacity to evaluate the current business cycle conditions and future developments.

    General competence

    • Upon completion of the course, students will be able to analyze the development of current macroeconomic trends.

  • Teaching

    Lectures, guest lectures and project work in groups.

  • Recommended prerequisites

    Basic knowledge about macroeconomics, finance and empirical methods from the bachelor program.

  • Required prerequisites

    Basic knowledge about macroeconomics, finance and empirical methods from the bachelor program.

  • Compulsory Activity

    Completing assignments.

  • Assessment

    Individual 4 hours take-home exam. Grades: A -F.

    The exam must be written in English. 

  • Grading Scale

    A - F

  • Computer tools

    Use of standard computer tools (excel etc.).

  • Literature

    The course literature will consist of selected articles, research reports and book chapters.


ECTS Credits
Teaching language

Autumn and Spring. Offered spring 2023.

Course responsible

Associate Professor Krisztina Molnar, Department of Economics (main course responsible)

Assistant Professor Markus Karlman, Department of Economics

Professor II. Tommy Sveen, Department of Economics